Blog - Omeva

Introduction

The Horn of Africa (HoA) is among the most disaster-prone and environmentally fragile regions globally, facing repeated crises from drought, floods, conflict, and economic challenges, leaving millions in need of assistance. Reliance on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism heightens vulnerability, with the 2020–2023 drought rendering over 23 million people food insecure. Droughts cause the most fatalities, while floods are the most frequent and costly disasters in Africa, affecting over 637,000 people in East Africa by May 2024. Climate change is expected to intensify these hazards.

Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Anticipatory Actions (AA) are crucial for reducing disaster impacts. EWS integrates hazard monitoring, forecasting, and preparedness to enable timely action, while AA involves proactive measures based on early warnings, offering significant economic and social benefits. Despite technological advancements, challenges such as resource limitations, poor coordination, and inadequate communication hinder effective response, particularly for pastoralist communities in remote areas with unique cultural and linguistic needs.

Community involvement in EWS enhances sustainability and relevance by addressing local needs and leveraging Indigenous Knowledge (IK), which incorporates generational expertise and local indicators. However, systematic development of Community-Based Early Warning Systems (CBEWS) is limited due to sparse documentation and exclusion of IK.

SDG: #2 (Zero Hunger), #13 (Climate Action), #17 (Partnership for the Goals)

Sectors: Development Consulting, Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Adaptation

Countries: Ethiopia, Kenya

Donors: Jameel Observatory, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Data for Children Collaborative

Duration: March 2024 - February 2025

Project Title: Harvesting Resilience: Understanding Early Warning System Communications to Inform Anticipatory Action and Enhance Food Security in the Horn of Africa

Project Partners: Urban Foresight (UK), i-shamba (Kenya), Maanshiil Consult (Ethiopia), Omeva Consulting (UK and Namibia)

Aim and Objectives

Aim

To recommend communication contents and methods between early warning system providers and agro-pastoral and pastoral communities to increase the effectiveness of early warnings and the anticipatory actions that can be taken in response.

Objectives

1. Identify current early warning communication methods, both available and most used, formal and informal, modern and traditional.
2. Carry out community engagement to understand barriers to current communication channels and preferred channels of communication, and to explore how local actors in agro-pastoral and pastoral communities interpret the content they receive.
3. Co-design recommendations with the communities concerned on the preferred content and means of communication for an effective warning to enable appropriate response to early warnings.
4. Document community practices and traditional knowledge used to anticipate climate shocks and natural disasters, assessing their effectiveness and potential for scaling to national or regional levels.
5. Explore opportunities to integrate community practices and traditional knowledge into early warning systems to enhance their effectiveness.

WHY IT MATTERS

This review was prompted by the following research question, which was posed by the Jameel Observatory in partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations and Data for Children collaborative:

“How can we bridge the disconnects between food security, climate, and natural disaster early warning systems and the anticipatory actions that pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa can take to overcome recurring shocks and threats to their lives and livelihoods?”

This project arose from the need to strengthen the connection between Early Warning Systems (EWS) and the anticipatory actions taken by communities to mitigate recurring shocks and threats. It focuses on closing this critical gap by developing actionable, community-driven EWS that combine traditional knowledge with modern technology.

Led by Urban Foresight (UK), the project partners with i-shamba (Kenya), Maanshiil Consult (Ethiopia), and Omeva Consulting (UK and Namibia). The initiative aims to empower pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia and Kenya by tailoring EWS to their specific needs, ultimately contributing to enhanced food security in the region.

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

The Need for Indigenous Knowledge in Early Warning Systems

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) plays a critical role in enhancing Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Anticipatory Actions (AA) by providing valuable insights derived from generations of interaction with local ecosystems. Communities often rely on natural indicators, such as animal behaviour, plant phenology, and meteorological observations, to predict and prepare for climate shocks and natural disasters. This knowledge is particularly crucial in remote areas where access to formal weather forecasting is limited. For example, flood and drought management strategies based on IK have proven effective in mitigating impacts, as seen in communities like Tuti Island in Sudan and Moyale in Kenya.

Integrating IK into EWS not only enriches disaster preparedness but also fosters community ownership and trust. However, urbanisation, climate change, and the decline of oral traditions threaten the preservation of this knowledge. Incorporating IK with scientific methods offers a path to more inclusive and effective EWS.

Our Approach

The project follows a Double Diamond approach, emphasizing divergent and convergent thinking to arrive at innovative and effective solutions. The project consists of two phases:

PHASE 1: LITERATURE REVIEW

This phase focuses on understanding the problem, gathering information, and engaging diverse stakeholders to co-design the project plan. Existing literature, policies, regulations, and datasets are analysed to provide a holistic view of climate change, natural disasters, food security, and EWS, with an emphasis on communication efficacy and cultural relevance. A literature review on IK and community-based EWS explores challenges pastoralist and agro-pastoralist communities face in using formal systems and highlights successful strategies for community participation in managing drought and flood risks.

PHASE 2: COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

Building on the findings from Phase 1, this phase validates and expands the knowledge through direct engagement with communities. FGDs, KIIs, and household surveys will be conducted in selected areas of Kenya and Ethiopia, where pastoralists frequently contend with drought and floods. Insights gathered will be compiled into two country reports.

Deliverables:

The project will produce three key documents:

1. A literature review on EWS, with a focus on CBEWS and IK in the Horn of Africa.
2. A country report for Ethiopia.
3. A country report for Kenya.

These outputs aim to provide local governments and stakeholders with critical information to inform policies and interventions in EWS and AA.

Our Role:

Omeva Consulting brings extensive expertise in data analysis, agri-tech, rangeland management, and drought resilience, informed by years of experience in Namibia, one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s driest regions. In this project, we have led the literature review and actively contributed our expertise across other work packages.

Project Updates

Our collaborative project to develop demand-responsive early warning systems tailored to community needs has entered its field research phase in Ethiopia and Kenya, following the successful completion of an evidence review.

Evidence Review Highlights

The review identified key challenges, such as gaps in community engagement, insufficient consideration of local needs, and the underutilisation of traditional knowledge in formal early warning systems. It also highlighted the pivotal roles played by international organisations, national governments, NGOs, and research institutions. Successful community-driven initiatives, like participatory risk mapping and locally led drought and flood resilience strategies, were explored as models for improvement.

Download Literature Review

Co-Designing Solutions

Our research team will collaborate with these communities to co-design practical recommendations for improving communication methods and content in early warning systems. The goal is to make these systems more effective and enable communities to take timely anticipatory actions to withstand shocks.

What’s Next?

The evidence review will be published in December 2024, with country-specific reports to follow in the new year.

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UNDERSTANDING EARLY WARNING SYSTEM COMMUNICATIONS TO INFORM ANTICIPATORY ACTION AND ENHANCE FOOD SECURITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA.

Introduction

Aim and Objectives