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UNDERSTANDING EARLY WARNING SYSTEM COMMUNICATIONS TO INFORM ANTICIPATORY ACTION AND ENHANCE FOOD SECURITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA.

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Introduction

The Horn of Africa (HoA) is among the most disaster-prone and environmentally fragile regions globally, facing repeated crises from drought, floods, conflict, and economic challenges, leaving millions in need of assistance. Reliance on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralism heightens vulnerability, with the 2020–2023 drought rendering over 23 million people food insecure. Droughts cause the most fatalities, while floods are the most frequent and costly disasters in Africa, affecting over 637,000 people in East Africa by May 2024. Climate change is expected to intensify these hazards.

Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Anticipatory Actions (AA) are crucial for reducing disaster impacts. EWS integrates hazard monitoring, forecasting, and preparedness to enable timely action, while AA involves proactive measures based on early warnings, offering significant economic and social benefits. Despite technological advancements, challenges such as resource limitations, poor coordination, and inadequate communication hinder effective response, particularly for pastoralist communities in remote areas with unique cultural and linguistic needs.

Community involvement in EWS enhances sustainability and relevance by addressing local needs and leveraging Indigenous Knowledge (IK), which incorporates generational expertise and local indicators. However, systematic development of Community-Based Early Warning Systems (CBEWS) is limited due to sparse documentation and exclusion of IK.

SDG: #2 (Zero Hunger), #13 (Climate Action), #17 (Partnership for the Goals)

Sectors: Development Consulting, Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Adaptation

Countries: Ethiopia, Kenya

Donors: Jameel Observatory, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Data for Children Collaborative

Duration: March 2024 - February 2025

Project Title: Harvesting Resilience: Understanding Early Warning System Communications to Inform Anticipatory Action and Enhance Food Security in the Horn of Africa

Project Partners: Urban Foresight (UK), i-shamba (Kenya), Maanshiil Consult (Ethiopia), Omeva Consulting (UK and Namibia)

Aim and Objectives

Aim

To recommend communication contents and methods between early warning system providers and agro-pastoral and pastoral communities to increase the effectiveness of early warnings and the anticipatory actions that can be taken in response.

Objectives

  • 1. Identify current early warning communication methods, both available and most used, formal and informal, modern and traditional.
  • 2. Carry out community engagement to understand barriers to current communication channels and preferred channels of communication, and to explore how local actors in agro-pastoral and pastoral communities interpret the content they receive.
  • 3. Co-design recommendations with the communities concerned on the preferred content and means of communication for an effective warning to enable appropriate response to early warnings.
  • 4. Document community practices and traditional knowledge used to anticipate climate shocks and natural disasters, assessing their effectiveness and potential for scaling to national or regional levels.
  • 5. Explore opportunities to integrate community practices and traditional knowledge into early warning systems to enhance their effectiveness.

Expected Impact

SHORT-TERM IMPACTS

Enables early warning data providers to communicate more effectively with pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa.

MEDIUM-TERM IMPACTS

Enables pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa to use early warning data more effectively, taking anticipatory action to adapt to climate shocks and natural disasters.

LONG-TERM IMPACTS

Enhances the resilience of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa to climate shocks and natural disasters, thereby improving food security at the household and community level.

WHY IT MATTERS

This review was prompted by the following research question, which was posed by the Jameel Observatory in partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations and Data for Children collaborative:

“How can we bridge the disconnects between food security, climate, and natural disaster early warning systems and the anticipatory actions that pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the Horn of Africa can take to overcome recurring shocks and threats to their lives and livelihoods?”

This project arose from the need to strengthen the connection between Early Warning Systems (EWS) and the anticipatory actions taken by communities to mitigate recurring shocks and threats. It focuses on closing this critical gap by developing actionable, community-driven EWS that combine traditional knowledge with modern technology.

Led by Urban Foresight (UK), the project partners with i-shamba (Kenya), Maanshiil Consult (Ethiopia), and Omeva Consulting (UK and Namibia). The initiative aims to empower pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Ethiopia and Kenya by tailoring EWS to their specific needs, ultimately contributing to enhanced food security in the region.

Africa Map
Kenya Flag

KENYA

Ethiopia Flag

ETHIOPIA

The Need for Indigenous Knowledge in Early Warning Systems

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) plays a critical role in enhancing Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Anticipatory Actions (AA) by providing valuable insights derived from generations of interaction with local ecosystems. Communities often rely on natural indicators, such as animal behaviour, plant phenology, and meteorological observations, to predict and prepare for climate shocks and natural disasters. This knowledge is particularly crucial in remote areas where access to formal weather forecasting is limited. For example, flood and drought management strategies based on IK have proven effective in mitigating impacts, as seen in communities like Tuti Island in Sudan and Moyale in Kenya.

Integrating IK into EWS not only enriches disaster preparedness but also fosters community ownership and trust. However, urbanisation, climate change, and the decline of oral traditions threaten the preservation of this knowledge. Incorporating IK with scientific methods offers a path to more inclusive and effective EWS.

Indigenous Knowledge

Our Approach

The project follows a Double Diamond approach, emphasizing divergent and convergent thinking to arrive at innovative and effective solutions. The project consists of two phases:

Phase 1: Discover

The Discover phase focuses on understanding the problem, gathering information, and bringing together the diverse stakeholders involved in the project to further co-design our project plan. Existing literature, policies, regulations, and available datasets are leveraged to gain a holistic understanding of climate change, natural disaster, food security, and early warning system (EWS), focusing on EWS communication efficacy and cultural relevance.

Phase 2: Define

The Define phase takes the information identified in the Discover phase, and applies it to the aims and objectives of the project. It narrows the scope of the project and creates a shared vision across stakeholders with core involvement in the project. In collaboration with communities in Ethiopia and Kenya, the project pilots EWS solutions, testing communication methods and anticipatory actions in real-world settings. These pilots refine strategies for broader implementation. Stakeholder interviews, community engagements, and traditional knowledge assessments form the core of this phase.

Deliverables:

The project will produce three key documents:

  • 1. A literature review on EWS, with a focus on CBEWS and IK in the Horn of Africa.
  • 2. A country report for Ethiopia.
  • 3. A country report for Kenya.

These outputs aim to provide local governments and stakeholders with critical information to inform policies and interventions in EWS and AA.

Our Role:

Omeva Consulting brings extensive expertise in data analysis, agri-tech, rangeland management, and drought resilience, informed by years of experience in Namibia, one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s driest regions. In this project, we have led the literature review and actively contributed our expertise across other work packages.

Project Updates

Our collaborative project to develop demand-responsive early warning systems tailored to community needs has entered its field research phase in Ethiopia and Kenya, following the successful completion of an evidence review.

Evidence Review Highlights

The review identified key challenges, such as gaps in community engagement, insufficient consideration of local needs, and the underutilisation of traditional knowledge in formal early warning systems. It also highlighted the pivotal roles played by international organisations, national governments, NGOs, and research institutions. Successful community-driven initiatives, like participatory risk mapping and locally led drought and flood resilience strategies, were explored as models for improvement.

Harvesting Resilience

Field Research Progress

In Ethiopia, our partners at Maanshiil Consult have conducted focus group discussions and key informant interviews in Danot (Pastoral) and Haroreys (Agro-Pastoral) districts. Early next year, our Kenyan partners will engage with communities in Garbatulla and Tharaka South, representing pastoral and agro-pastoral systems.

The selected communities span diverse agroecological zones, varying levels of rainfall, livelihoods, and infrastructure. This diversity ensures our engagement reflects the unique needs of different populations.

Field Research

Co-Designing Solutions

Our research team will collaborate with these communities to co-design practical recommendations for improving communication methods and content in early warning systems. The goal is to make these systems more effective and enable communities to take timely anticipatory actions to withstand shocks.

What’s Next?

The evidence review will be published in December 2024, with country-specific reports to follow in the new year.

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